European basketball: NBA's uncertain step and the 'elephant in the room'

When Brian Windhorst invited Aris Barkas to the Hoop Collective podcast, no one expected the conversation to revolve around such a sensitive topic: the future of the NBA in Europe. Barkas, founder of Eurohoops and a highly respected voice in international basketball, made a statement that made many pause: 'Expansion is not a financial issue, it's a control issue.' The current context shows the NBA weighing two paths: merging with the existing European basketball system, or competing directly. But Barkas points out that while American investors see a 'significantly undervalued asset,' the operational reality is far more complex. European basketball is not a single league but a multi-tier hierarchy: EuroLeague, EuroCup, Basketball Champions League, and domestic leagues. Each tier has its own interests and institutions, and an NBA entry would impact all of them. The core of this analysis is the 'elephant in the room' Barkas mentions: who will have control? Top European clubs like Real Madrid or FC Barcelona are supporter-owned, not private shareholder entities. They may refuse NBA operating directives. This makes the 'merge' path much harder than it appears. Conversely, if the NBA chooses 'compete,' they would have to build a new league from scratch, directly challenging the EuroLeague – a major brand and investment risk. From a counter-intuitive angle, I believe the most likely scenario is neither pure merge nor pure compete, but a hybrid model: the NBA partners on distribution and marketing but cedes sporting governance to European clubs. This resolves the sovereignty knot while still bringing in American capital. However, Barkas warns that if the control issue is not settled first, the project could fall into 'freeze' mode – endless negotiations with no final decision. The biggest risk lies in culture: the NBA's entertainment-driven franchise model clashes with the European 'localized venue' tradition, where arenas are cultural spaces rather than commercial theaters. If the NBA imposes too many American elements, they could lose the soul of the sport on the old continent. As Barkas once said: 'I don't write to be right, I write to explore an angle no one has seen.' With that perspective, I predict that within the next 12 months, we will see an official announcement from the NBA on a governance framework – either a co-governance mechanism or a clear split. The question is: will the European giants sit at the negotiating table as the weaker party, or will they build a counter-alliance? That is what is worth waiting for.